Like its summer predecessor, the fall version of Prime Day — Prime Big Deals Days, taking place Oct. 7-8 — has become a major sales opportunity for more than just Amazon. Multiple competitors, including giants such as Walmart, Target and Best Buy, run their own deal days the same week as they seek to take advantage of the online buying spree that Amazon kickstarts.
Given this bandwagon of deals and discounts, Adobe has forecast a robust 6.2% year-over-year growth rate (compared to 2024’s event) during this fall’s Prime sales event. Adobe predicts that U.S. online shoppers will spend $9 billion over the two-day period, with discounts peaking at 17% off listed prices.
Adobe also is predicting a major role for buy now, pay later (BNPL) during the event, with these services driving $723 million in sales, an 8.1% year-over-year increase. Mobile shopping is set to account for 50.5% of the overall spend compared to desktop shopping, representing $4.55 billion, a 12.7% year-over-year growth rate.
Fall Prime Day Becomes Unofficial Holiday Season Kickoff
The holiday shopping season has been getting longer for some time now, and this year concerns about tariff-induced price increases and/or product shortages are encouraging even more consumers to shop earlier. All these factors are combining to make the fall Prime Big Deals Days the unofficial start of the spending season.
Adobe’s predictions for online sales during the “official” holiday season (Nov. 1 to Dec. 31 2025) are fairly rosy, with the company forecasting that U.S. online sales will increase 5.3% year-over-year compared to 2024, reaching $253.4 billion for the period from Nov. 1 to Dec. 31, 2025.
For global holiday sales in all channels, Deloitte has forecast a 2.9% to 3.4% increase this year compared to 2024, reaching a total of $1.61 to $1.62 trillion. This would represent a slower rate of growth than in 2024, when holiday sales grew 4.2%. For online sales globally, Salesforce is forecasting a 4% year-over-year increase for a worldwide total of $1.25 trillion.
Some analysts are predicting that the season will not be shining so brightly for retailers and brands. PwC has forecast a 5% decrease in overall average consumer spend, a dramatic shift from the 7% increase during holiday 2024 compared to the previous season. PwC also is forecasting an 11% decrease in overall average gift spend (compared to a 4% increase in 2024), with a 23% year-over-year pullback in gift spending by Gen Z. Overall, PwC is forecasting that average per-person spend will drop from $1,638 in 2024 to $1,152 this year.