Affordability challenges are reshaping U.S. consumer buying habits for grocery shopping, according to the latest Dunnhumby Consumer Trends Tracker (CTT). Mass-market and value retailers like Walmart, Dollar General, Dollar Tree and Family Dollar have achieved 79% penetration, matching the reach of traditional supermarkets for the first time.
Since the CTT debuted in April 2022, mass channel penetration has increased five percentage points, representing a shift of millions of consumers changing their shopping patterns. The current report, Wave 12, also revealed that 70% of working-age Americans (aged 18 to 54) have difficulty covering an unexpected $400 expense.
“We are seeing that U.S. households are realigning where they shop based on affordability,” said Matt O’Grady, President of the Americas for Dunnhumby in a statement. “What makes this different from the 2023 inflation spike is that consumer concern persists even as actual inflation moderates. Where they shop, how they use coupons, even how they adopt AI — everything aligns to saving money.
“When financial insecurity becomes this entrenched, grocery affordability becomes paramount, and shopping behavior doesn’t just snap back,” O’Grady added.
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Walmart Driving Growth in Mass Market Grocery
Walmart remains a leader in this vertical, with a 72% penetration rate. The retailing giant serves 190 million Americans each month, 2.5X the reach of second-place Dollar General’s 28.6% rate. However, penetration for dollar stores as a group has reached 42%, overtaking club stores for the first time since August 2023. Dollar General, Family Dollar and Dollar Tree each have added four to six percentage points year-over-year to their penetration rate.
Other key findings from the research, based on 8,500 grocery shopper interviews conducted in December 2025 across Canada, Brazil, Colombia, Mexico, Chile and the U.S., include:
- Food insecurity, defined as reducing meal size or skipping meals due to financial hardship, affects nearly 40% of U.S. consumers aged 45 to 54, the highest rate among any age group. Working-age adults face food insecurity at 4X the rate of seniors over 65. At 34% and 32% respectively, the South Central and West regions experience significantly higher food insecurity rates than the Northeast, at 22%;
- Despite financial pressures, consumers took a break from aggressive price-seeking behaviors during the 2025 holiday season, with shopping at lower-price stores declining by 2.1 percentage points. However, bulk buying increased by 1.3 percentage points, suggesting consumers maintained their long-term savings strategies through stockpiling;
- Nearly half (47%) of shoppers now redeem coupons through store loyalty programs, up 2.5 percentage points from the Wave 11 report. More than two-thirds (68%) of shoppers seek discounts on items they buy regularly, and 62% expect stores to offer abundant promotions. Just over half, 52%, actively identify themselves to claim rewards; and
- Just 15% of U.S. consumers use AI tools for grocery shopping, with trust emerging as a primary barrier to greater adoption. More than one-third (38%) don’t see the need for AI, and 37% prefer making their own shopping decisions. Nearly one in five (19%) U.S. consumers distrust AI recommendations, compared to 12% among the broader Americas.
The CTT studies track where people shop and how much they spend, with each quarterly Wave including timely ad hoc modules on current topics. The CTT complements the Dunnhumby Retailer Preference Index, which is released each January.
