Anticipating a strong holiday season, retailers are on track to import a record volume of merchandise in 2017, according to the November Global Port Tracker report released by NRF and Hackett Associates.
“Retailers have been bringing in merchandise since late summer, and supply is ready to meet the increased demand that has been building throughout the year,” said Jonathan Gold, NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy in a statement.
The total number of 20-foot-long cargo containers or their equivalents, known as TEU, is forecast to hit 20 million for the year. This would be an increase of 6.3% over 2016, which set a record with 18.8 million TEU. Ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled 9.7 million TEU in the first half of 2017, a 7.5% bump up from the same period in 2016.
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Import volume varies on a monthly basis, but the trend for the last four months of the year is upward. September, the latest month for which data is available, registered 10.5% year-over-year growth. Shipments for October are estimated to have grown 4.9% compared to the previous October. Although November imports are expected to be flat, dipping 0.5% YOY, December shipments are forecast to rise 2%.
NRF is forecasting that 2017 holiday retail sales will climb between 3.6% and 4%, while the full year will come in between 3.2% and 3.8% ahead of 2016. Because the Global Port Tracker counts the number of containers rather than the value of the products inside, cargo volume does not correlate directly with sales, but shipment numbers can be seen as a barometer of retailers’ expectations, according to the association.
“This has turned out to be a boom year for growth in import cargo volume,” said Ben Hackett, Founder of Hackett Associates in a statement. “It reflects strong growth in spending by U.S. consumers.”
