Retailers lost an estimated $115 billion to ecommerce fraud in 2024, and ineffective identity verification remains one of the biggest vulnerabilities they must address entering 2026. Fraudsters are evolving faster than many retail systems can react; meanwhile, customers expect verification to be both seamless and secure.
While ecommerce leaders are taking on more advanced fraud and identity verification technologies, a surprising number of retailers still rely on manual checks or outdated fraud filters. Recent data highlights that retail fraud is accelerating, with 10% of all product returns deemed fraudulent, 7% of BOPIS transactions potentially fraudulent and merchants facing more than $100B in chargebacks. This creates clear opportunities for account takeovers and synthetic identity fraud.
In 2026, expect rapid catch-up across the sector as verification becomes essential for meeting payment provider requirements and safeguarding loyalty programs.
Synthetic Identity Fraud Becomes Retail’s Biggest Liability
Synthetic identity fraud has remained the fastest-growing type of fraud, overtaking traditional identity theft and credit card fraud. 2026 is shaping up to be the year it hits retail hardest, exposing weaknesses in account creation, checkout flows and BNPL approval processes. Unlike classic identity theft, where a criminal steals someone’s full identity, synthetic fraud blends real and fake information to create customers who appear legitimate at first glance but leave companies with no recourse once defrauded.
Advertisement
For retailers, this increasingly means new customer accounts, loyalty enrollments and checkout identities that look legitimate but belong to synthetic profiles built from a blend of real and fake data. IDScan.net’s analysis of more than 400,000 identities scanned across retail environments shows how quickly the threat is accelerating. For example, during Black Friday 2024, fraud attempts were 117.3% higher than the yearly average, and the week that followed surged to 195.1% above yearly average levels. Overall retail fraud attempts increased fivefold from 2023 to 2024.
Detecting synthetic identities is becoming increasingly difficult, as AI-generated documents and fabricated profiles now mimic authentic IDs with alarming accuracy. Fraud methods are evolving faster than many retail identity verification systems can keep up, further increasing the disparity between what appears trustworthy and what actually is.
AI Becomes Both the Threat and Defense
With the increasing rise of generative AI, every part of identity verification is being affected. On one side, we’re seeing AI-powered tools create deepfakes and synthetic identities that are genuinely hard to spot. Research shows 78% of consumers are worried about deepfake threats to their identity, but only 44% felt confident they could actually identify one. If consumers are struggling to spot them, plenty of frontline staff will struggle to spot these same threats.
Simultaneously, AI is becoming the most effective defense against these threats. Modern verification systems can analyse image inconsistencies, behavioural patterns and document anomalies with accuracy far beyond a manual review.
For retailers to get ahead of the threats in 2026, embracing AI-driven verification models now — not after fraud has already impacted chargebacks, loyalty fraud or account takeovers — iscritical. By the time the impact is visible, the damage will have already been done.
Mobile IDs are Expanding
This trend is important to highlight on its own, as it’s already gaining traction and being put into practice. Six states launched mobile driver’s license programs in 2024 and eight more are expected to join by the end of 2025. By 2026 customers will be using digital versions of their ID far more often. A real-world example we are seeing is Apple’s announcement of a digital passport feature for Apple Wallet, signalling that major tech companies are investing in mobile credential infrastructure, which could accelerate adoption across the board.
This will become more noticeable in 2026, especially when customers are buying age-restricted products or need to confirm their identity for loyalty or membership purposes. Retailers that can verify mobile IDs quickly and securely will make operational workflows smoother and more reliable for everyone.
Regulatory Changes will Demand Stricter Verification Across the Board
2026 is expected to bring regulatory changes that will directly affect how we verify identities across a wide range of everyday interactions, including several that directly touch retail. The Department of Education’s crackdown in 2025 is setting a precedent that we’re already seeing trickle into other agencies, with more programs demanding stronger proof of identity. We are also starting to see stricter enforcement with digital verification, including re-verification requirements, which signals that most industries, retail included, are heading toward ongoing identity checks rather than one-time verification during hiring.
When you combine this with the conversations happening around voter ID, age-restricted purchases and access to government loans, these changes are normalizing tougher verification expectations across all sectors. For retailers, this means new compliance obligations and operational adjustments at the point of sale and online. Retailers need to be prepared to validate identity more often.
Trust is Declining, and Continuous Verification is the Answer
One of the biggest changes retailers are facing is the move away from one-time identity checks toward verification that happens throughout a person’s relationship with a business. The traditional approach, confirming someone’s identity when they’re hired or when they first sign up, then assuming nothing will change, is leaving businesses vulnerable to fraud.
Retailers know that verifying someone on day one doesn’t guarantee anything a year later. Customer details can change, accounts can be taken over and fraud often happens long after the initial interaction. As we head into 2026, more retailers are looking at ways to maintain trust over a long period of time, whether that’s during hiring, loyalty engagement, BOPIS pickups or other high-value transactions.
Threats evolve, people’s information changes and security processes need to reflect that reality. Continuous verification is on track to become the expectation, and retailers that build this into their processes now will be better protected as fraud becomes more and more sophisticated.
Looking Ahead to 2026
All of these trends are connected, and addressing them will take coordination among retailers, technology partners and policymakers to make sure identity is handled consistently and securely across every touch point. The good news is that the industry is taking action and that advances in AI-driven verification, mobile IDs and more secure credentialing tools are starting to catch up with what regulations expect and what businesses can carry out in practice.
Retailers have the opportunity in 2026 to give customers a safer, smoother experience at a time when consumers’ trust is harder than ever to earn. Fraud is evolving, and digital identity is becoming part of everyday life. The retailers who start upgrading verification and embrace using AI to spot what the human eye can’t will be the ones that create safer experiences for their customers and stronger protection for their business.
Jimmy Roussel is a tried-and-tested growth expert specializing in accelerating the expansion of technology companies across the U.S. At IDScan.net, he plays a vital role in continuing IDScan.net’s best-in-class identity verification solutions, servicing businesses across the U.S. to increase their anti-fraud measures to protect revenue and increase customer safety.
