For the first time, holiday season digital sales are projected to break the $100 million mark. Adobe is forecasting online sales for the 2017 season to reach $107.4 billion, which would represent a 13.8% increase over the $91.7 billion in revenue generated in 2016. The 13.8% growth rate would outpace in-store retail spending growth by 10%.
Cyber Monday is expected to become the largest online shopping day in U.S. history, with $6.6 billion in online sales, or 16.5% growth. The survey also revealed that the three hours of 8 pm to 11 pm (local time) on Cyber Monday generate more revenue than an entire average shopping day.
Conversion rates reach their yearly peak during the last hour of Cyber Monday (11 pm to 12 am local time), reaching 4X the annual average.
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Mobile To Surpass Desktop Traffic
In another first, mobile visits to retail sites throughout the season are set to surpass desktop at 54% (45% via smartphones; 9% via tablets), with desktop accounting for the remaining 46%.
Despite the shifting balance in online traffic, desktop still will take the lead share of revenue. However, desktop purchases are slowly declining and are projected to generate 66% of sales (down 6% year-over-year). On the other hand, smartphones take in 24% (up 26%), while tablets reel in 10% (down 9%).
The continued discounts seen throughout the season have made a clear impression on shoppers as they approach the 2017 holiday. Consumers are expected to buy more items but at lower prices. Four out of five product categories measured in the study showed higher unit growth than revenue growth. For example, toys (39% unit growth vs 24% revenue growth) and apparel (20% unit growth vs 17% revenue growth) will sell more items while prices decrease.
Not surprisingly, large retailers with more than $100 million in annual revenue will see higher order values than retailers with less than $10 million in annual revenue. These totals come in at:
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$171 per order (large) vs $90 (small) on desktop;
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$162 vs $77 on tablet; and
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$141 vs $71 on smartphones.
Large retailers also see higher desktop conversion rates (4.9% vs 3.4%) but have lower mobile conversion (1.6% vs 1.9%) compared to small retailers. The middle-of-the-pack “in-betweeners” that generate between $10 million and $100 million are in the toughest spot. While both large and small retailers have 3.2% and 2.7% conversion rates respectively, midsized retailers have the lowest conversion rates, at 2.4%.
