Key takeaways
- Shoppers expect to spend an average of $1,654 this holiday season, up 4% from 2025, with Gen Z and millennials accounting for 50% of spending for the first time.
- Half of shoppers plan to gift an experience, and those who use search, social media and GenAI plan to spend $2,893 on average, more than double those who use none of the three.
Holiday Spending is forecasted to increase 4% with shoppers focus on value, according to an annual survey from Deloitte as shoppers are balancing budgets and keeping spirits bright as they prioritize gifting experiences and smart spending this holiday season
Surveyed consumers expect to spend $1,654 on average this holiday shopping season, up 4% from $1,595 in 2025, with gains primarily coming from Gen Z and millennials; both groups plan to increase spend by double digits year over year. Half of shoppers plan to gift an experience, up from 47% in 2025 and 39% in 2024, with Gen Z and millennials, again, leading the trend.
This year’s 2026 Holiday Retail Survey explored what to expect from holiday shoppers across generations and income levels, as many respondents begin their purchasing journey earlier and look to stretch their budgets further.
Why Are Gen Z and Millennials Driving Holiday Spending Growth
Gen Z and millennials note better household financial situations YoY and plan to up their spend after pulling back last year. Younger generations are driving the largest gains in gifting; three quarters (76%) of Gen Z shoppers plan to gift clothing and accessories.
“For the first time in our annual survey, Gen Z and millennials are expected to account for 50% of holiday spending, presenting a meaningful opportunity for retailers,” said Natalie Martini, vice chair and US Retail and Consumer Products sector leader, Deloitte, in a statement. “Their preferences — including wish lists, faster delivery and personalized gifts — can help retailers make the shopping experience more relevant and convenient. Retailers that respond effectively may be better positioned to earn these shoppers’ spending this holiday season.”
Economic sentiment holds steady among respondents, with 45% expecting the economy to stay the same or improve. Fifty percent of holiday shoppers plan to gift an experience, such as to a restaurant (in-person meal or gift card; 37%) or tickets to an event (19%), but 79% of shoppers planning to gift an experience also want to pair it with a physical item.
Forty-seven percent of respondents prefer to give one meaningful, higher-cost gift rather than several smaller gifts. Planned retail goods spending increases across the income spectrum, while experience spending diverges by household income. Households earning $200K+ plan to spend $3,607 on average, more than five times the $693 expected by those earning under $50K.
When Are Consumers Starting Their Holiday Shopping?
Earlier shopping is building momentum ahead of the peak season, with June promotions that have already captured 1 in 4 holiday shoppers, and October sales events gaining momentum over the past three years. Still, Thanksgiving week remains the main event. And throughout the season, GenAI is becoming part of the holiday shopping journey.
One in 4 respondents already purchased holiday items during June promotional events, and 4 in 10 plan to shop October sales events, up 18 percentage points from 2023 and nearly on par with Cyber Monday at 44%. But Traditional shopping windows still hold firm, as planned shopping activity peaks in late November (77% of shoppers active) and stays elevated into early December (78%). About the shopping journey and planning, the Deloitte survey revealed:
- Nearly 4 in 10 (38%) shoppers qualify as “holiday value seekers,” adopting five or more money-saving behaviors, yet they expect to spend 12% more than others. These savvy shoppers are more likely to start shopping early and keep going all season.
- The holiday shopping journey favors online-only retailers and mass merchants: 36% and 18% of holiday shoppers, respectively, expect to spend the most at these formats, while price and value remain the top retailer-selection factor.
- Although shoppers plan to allocate 55% of their retail holiday budgets online, many still favor in-store shopping for certain categories, especially food and beverage (81% prefer in-store vs. 19% online); pet (62% in-store vs. 38% online); and home and kitchen (60% in-store vs. 40% online).
How Do Digital Tools and GenAI Affect Holiday Spending?
Broader use of digital tools is associated with higher planned holiday spending: average spend rises steadily as shoppers use search, social media and GenAI across their holiday shopping journey. Those using all three tools — search, social media and GenAI — plan to spend an average of $2,893, compared with $1,175 among shoppers who did not use any of the three tools.
Younger shoppers are more likely to seek guidance, personalization, convenience, and service, while older shoppers prefer a more independent experience once costs are clear. This points to evolving generational preferences that create new opportunities for retailers to differentiate holiday shopping experiences. Younger shoppers also lead self-gifting, while higher-income households show stronger intent to buy for themselves
Twenty percent of respondents plan to buy personalized or monogrammed gifts, including 33% of Gen Z and 29% of millennials, compared with 14% of Gen X and 5% of baby boomers. Among the 44% of respondents who find gift shopping stressful, 74% say wish lists make the process easier – including 79% of Gen Z and 69% of baby boomers. Additionally details from the survey include:
- Twenty-six percent of respondents want same-day delivery, rising to 37% among Gen Z and 33% among millennials, compared with 24% of Gen X and 13% of baby boomers.
- Another 26% of respondents rely on salespeople to find an appealing luxury gift, including 34% of Gen Z and 31% of millennials, compared with 18% of Gen X and 13% of baby boomers.
- Among shoppers planning or considering a self-gift, the average expected spend is $299, up 13% from 2025 and 20% from 2024. Younger shoppers lead this trend (49% of Gen Z plan to self-gift compared to 18% of baby boomers). Male shoppers also plan to spend more on self-gifting ($355) than female shoppers ($245).
“Holiday shoppers are not looking for a one-size-fits-all experience,” said Brian McCarthy, Retail Strategy leader, Deloitte. “Younger shoppers are seeking more personalization, guidance and convenience, while older shoppers place greater emphasis on clear value and independent shopping. Retailers that tailor the experience to these preferences can make holiday shopping more relevant and capture growing self-gifting demand.”
How Does Deloitte’s Forecast Compare With NRF and Adobe?
The forecast echo’s to other annual reports from Adobe and National Retail Federation (NRF). The NRF expects holiday sales to grow 4.2% this year to $1.013 trillion, as shoppers keep spending despite persistent inflation and uneven confidence in the economy. “We think our forecast reflects and points to another very strong holiday season,” said Matthew Shay, NRF President and CEO. “Throughout the year, consumers have repeatedly shown that holidays and spending on loved ones are priorities. That’s actually been true for many years, particularly the end-of-year holiday season, We’re confident that pattern is going to continue.”
Adobe Inc. expects U.S. consumers to spend a record $275.1 billion online this holiday season, up 6.7% year over year, according to an Adobe press release issued Monday. The forecast covers Nov. 1 through Dec. 31, 2026. Cyber Week, the five-day period between Thanksgiving and Cyber Monday, is expected to drive $47.5 billion in online sales, up 7.4%. That represents 17.3% of total season spending.
Electronics ($63.3 billion, up 5.9%) and apparel ($51.3 billion, up 4.7%) are expected to remain the largest categories. Adobe expects stronger growth in grocery ($26.1 billion, up 10.3%), toys ($9.6 billion, up 9.6%), cosmetics ($9.2 billion, up 9.5%) and furniture ($33.4 billion, up 7.3%).
