Key Takeaways
- Shoppers aren’t spending less, they’re spending smarter, embracing “minimalistic buying” and switching brands, categories and timing to stretch every dollar.
- AI now drives product discovery, so retailers must structure their data, pricing and value proposition to stay “AI-citable” in answer engines.
- Victory won’t come from the deepest discounts. It’ll come from stocking the right inventory, reacting fast and protecting margin.
Historically, the holiday shopping season has been synonymous with crowded parking lots, door buster deals and consumers eager to spend. But if industry experts’ predictions are right, Holiday 2026 will look markedly different.
Blanket discounts and outdated holiday playbooks won’t be enough as retailers compete for more selective consumers who are planning earlier, watching every dollar and using AI to guide purchase decisions. From our conversations with leading retail analysts, one message is clear: Shoppers are still willing to spend, but they’ll be far more intentional.
Marshal Cohen, Chief Retail Adviser at Circana; Sudip Mazumder, SVP, Retail Industry Lead, North America at Publicis Sapient; Neil Saunders, Managing Director and Retail analyst at GlobalData and Bellamy Grindl, Founder of Retailytics shared their predictions for Holiday 2026 with Retail TouchPoints.
Consumers Aren’t Pulling Back — They’re Becoming More Intentional
Heading into Holiday 2026, the biggest misconception may be that consumers simply aren’t spending. Experts say the reality is far more nuanced.
“Holiday 2026 is likely to be defined by value-led shopping increasingly mediated by AI,” said Sudip Mazumder, SVP, Retail Industry Lead, North America at Publicis Sapient, in an interview with Retail TouchPoints. “Consumers will still buy, but they’ll optimize every purchase by leaning into promotions, switching categories and brands without hesitation, and timing purchases with greater intent. This builds on the ‘cautious but spending’ pattern we saw in 2025.”
And that growing intentionality is evident across the industry.
Marshal Cohen, Chief Retail Adviser at Circana, believes shoppers have fundamentally changed the way they approach the holidays.
“Holiday 26 will feel different,” Cohen said in an interview with Retail TouchPoints. “The spirit of the holiday has changed. Gone are the days of feeling like you can spoil your loved ones. Gone are the days where you would shop until you drop over the Thanksgiving weekend. Gone are the door buster items that people scrambled and waited in line outside stores at 4 am. What we now have is a holiday of ‘minimalistic buying.’ Buying the bare minimum, you can spend without spoiling the holiday. Consumers will be searching for what to get as a gift that is different than what they bought in the past.”
Neil Saunders, managing director and retail analyst at GlobalData, sees the same shift, but expects overall spending to remain relatively healthy.
“2026 will be a solid enough holiday season and consumers will come out and spend,” he explained in an interview with Retail TouchPoints. “That said, under the headline spending will be selective and consumers will be very discerning about what they buy and where they buy it. This will mean results will be polarized. Some retailers will see good gains and others won’t.”
AI Is Changing How Consumers Shop and How Retailers Must Compete
While cautious spending is one defining trend, experts say artificial intelligence may have the biggest impact on Holiday 2026.
According to Mazumder, retailers risk underestimating just how dramatically AI is changing product discovery.
“The mistake retailers can make is treating this shift to AI-mediated shopping like traditional SEO or a marketing-layer tweak,” he added. “The real risk is becoming non-citable in AI-driven shopping journeys because product data, pricing logic, availability and the value proposition aren’t structured and explained in a way that answer engines can confidently summarize and recommend.”
It’s not just consumers who will benefit from AI.
Bellamy Grindl, founder of Retailytics, expects retailers to rely on AI to make quicker operational decisions throughout the season.
“I also think AI will start to play a bigger role this holiday,” explained Grindl in an interview with Retail TouchPoints. “The brands investing in AI and better planning infrastructure now will react much faster to competitors’ pricing, inventory levels and demand shifts instead of waiting until the season ends to learn what worked.”
Taken together, those shifts suggest AI won’t simply influence holiday shopping, but shape both sides of the transaction.
Winning Won’t Be About the Biggest Discounts
That changing consumer mindset also means the traditional race to the bottom on price may no longer be the winning strategy.
Instead, experts say Holiday 2026 will become a battle for wallet share, with retailers forced to make smarter decisions about inventory and promotions.
“Holiday 2026 will be all about share of wallet,” Grindl said. “Consumers are still spending, but they’re being much more selective about where their dollars go. In the past, I think retailers focused too much on broad promotions. Winners will stock the right inventory and use promotions strategically, not just to clear excess stock.”
Grindl expects retailers to become far more disciplined about balancing growth and profitability.
“The brands I’m working with are actually planning for a smaller holiday overall but a more profitable one,” she noted. “The focus is shifting from chasing every dollar of revenue to protecting margin and winning with the right products.”
That philosophy extends to inventory planning as well.
“Know your winners and back into those products,” Grindl explained. “Don’t spread your inventory dollars evenly across your assortment. The brands that win holiday won’t necessarily be the ones offering the deepest discounts, they’ll be the ones that stay nimble, react quickly, and have the right products available when customers are ready to buy.”
Economic Headwinds Will Continue to Shape Behavior
Even as shoppers remain willing to spend, experts say outside economic pressures will continue influencing how and where they shop. Fuel prices are one factor that could reshape purchasing behavior.
“Fuel prices have the potential to amplify these behaviors,” Mazumder explained. “Higher fuel prices tend to reduce discretionary trips and impulse buying, push shoppers toward fewer, more efficient baskets and shift fulfillment choices toward more consolidated pickup orders or ship-to-home when delivery feels ‘free.’ At the same time, retailers face higher delivery and replenishment costs, pinching margins at the exact moment shoppers are most comparison-hungry. AI amplifies the impact by making trade-down, substitutes and deal discovery effortless in real time.”
Cohen also thinks broader economic pressures will keep overall holiday growth relatively subdued.
“Holiday 2026 is up against a soft one from last year,” he noted, “however, with higher prices and several economic headwinds like gas prices and elevated credit card debt we will have a ho-hum holiday looking at below 2% growth.”
So What Are Retailers Still Getting Wrong?
Despite years of evolving consumer behavior, experts say many retailers are still solving yesterday’s problems.
For Cohen, the issue is a lack of excitement.
“Retailers are getting it wrong by not exciting the consumer with enough newness and innovation,” he explained. “Shoppers are seeking ideas of what to get and looking at digital options instead of stores and letting the competition come from a more convenient method with online shopping.”
Meanwhile, Saunders contends retailers face a balancing act that few have mastered.
“Consumers will also start holiday shopping earlier and will plan more extensively,” he said. “Consumers will be looking for two things, both of which are different. One is convenience and efficiency, the other is inspiration and excitement. The challenge for retailers is to try and excel at both.”
Meeting those evolving expectations will require retailers to rethink more than just their holiday strategies.
“One piece of advice heading into Holiday 2026 is to make your value proposition AI-citable,” Mazumder explained. “Clean up and structure your product catalog to be AI-readable and aligned to customer intent. Provide authoritative content that answers ‘which one should I buy and why?’ and reinforce trust with transparent promotions, clear policies and credible FAQs. This puts retailers in a position for answer engines to confidently surface their products when shoppers ask for the best value.”
Judging from industry experts’ predictions, Holiday 2026 will belong to retailers that understand smarter shoppers and success will come from delivering the right value, the right products and the right experiences in an AI-driven marketplace.
