[Editor’s Note: This story was updated on Jan. 6, 2025 to include sales figures from Salesforce.]
The presents are unwrapped, trees are out on the curb and the final sales numbers are rolling in for the 2024 holiday season, which delivered the growth that had been predicted. Preliminary numbers from Mastercard and Visa indicate that sales increased 3.8% and 4.8%, respectively, from Nov. 1 to Dec. 24, 2024, compared to the same period in 2023. Both Visa and Mastercard measure in-store and online sales for all payment types in their analysis.
Both sets of data also showed a marked increase in online spending, with Mastercard reporting a 6.7% bump in online sales year-over-year and Visa reporting a 7.1% increase in online shopping. At the same time, in-person shopping and spending also saw gains, with Mastercard remarking on what it called consumers’ “balanced basket”: restaurant spending grew 6.3% year-over-year alongside gains in hard goods categories apparel (3.6%), jewelry (4%) and electronics (3.7%).
“This holiday shopping season, we’re seeing increasing consumer confidence as people sought out in-store experiences — and went online — to purchase gifts and celebrate the holidays with friends and family,” said Wayne Best, Chief Economist at Visa in a statement. “This spending growth demonstrates the adaptability of both consumers and retailers and the overall strength of the economy.”
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Salesforce also has released its holiday results, reporting that sales surged to a record $1.2 trillion globally and $282 billion in the U.S. These numbers are higher than Salesforce originally predicted; the company said that growth was driven by surges in mobile and social commerce alongside increases in spending after consumers spent the first half of 2024 saving.
Malls Win Big Amid Shortened Shopping Season
According to Visa, 77% of total payment volume took place in stores this year versus 23% online, with total retail spend in stores growing 4.1% (versus 1.6% last year). One of the biggest recipients of all that IRL shopping this year was malls. In fact, insights from foot traffic intelligence platform Placer.ai found that visits to indoor malls on Super Saturday (the last Saturday before Christmas, which fell on Dec. 21 in 2024) increased a whopping 177.1% compared to 2024’s year-to-date daily average. Visitsto outlet malls and to open-air shopping centers also saw marked increases of 192.1% and 105.8%, respectively, compared to 2024 daily averages.
In fact, the last five days of the holiday shopping season, which includes Super Saturday, accounted for 10% of all spending, according to Mastercard — indicating a rash of last-minute spending that wasn’t unexpected, given the shortened shopping window between Thanksgiving and Christmas 2024.
Also in line with expectations, consumers sought out value this year, reported Mastercard, with promotions driving sales throughout the season.
“The holiday shopping season revealed a consumer who is willing and able to spend but driven by a search for value, as can be seen by concentrated ecommerce spending during the biggest promotional periods,” said Michelle Meyer, Chief Economist at the Mastercard Economics Institute in a statement. “Solid spending during this holiday season underscores the strength we observed from the consumer all year, supported by the healthy labor market and household wealth gains.”
Fraud and Returns Increase Along with Sales
In tandem with these spending increases both fraud and returns also saw gains. Visa said that during the 2024 Black Friday-Cyber Monday weekend it blocked nearly double the amount of suspected fraud versus 2023. And Loop Returns reported that return volumes again increased this year, albeit at a lower rate than they increased in 2023, climbing 5.7% in 2024 versus a 16.2% increase in 2023.
Salesforce numbers paint an even more dire picture with that company’s data indicating that more than $122 billion of global purchases have already been returned, up 28% from last holiday season. The company predicts that this number will grow to $133 billion as holiday returns continue to trickle in.
