Per-consumer spending for the holiday season will average $890.49, down 1.3% from the 2024 record high of $901.99. That’s according to the National Retail Federation (NRF)’s annual consumer survey, conducted by Prosper Insights & Analytics. Shoppers remain concerned about the impact of President Trump’s tariffs on their holiday budgets: 85% are anticipating that they will cause higher prices.
The 2025 average is the second-highest in the survey’s 23-year history. (For this year’s survey, Prosper asked 8,247 adult consumers about their holiday shopping plans from Oct. 1-7, 2025.)
“Time and again, Americans prioritize spending on loved ones for holidays despite economic uncertainty,” said Katherine Cullen, VP of Industry and Consumer Insights for the NRF in a statement. “With more consumers planning to seek out sale events this year, retailers are prepared to deliver on deals and value to ensure consumers have everything they need to make the holiday special.”
Consumers will spend the majority of the total, $627.93, on gifts for family and friends, with the remainder being used for seasonal items like food, candy, decorations and greeting cards.
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Families with Children Expected to Increase Holiday Budgets
“Despite consumers’ economic concerns, the winter holidays remain an important occasion to celebrate with loved ones,” said Phil Rist, EVP of Strategy at Prosper in a statement. “This is particularly true for those families with children, who are expected to increase their gift budgets by more than $30 on average.”
Other economic indicators support the premise that holiday spending will remain strong this year. The latest CNBC/NRF monthly Retail Monitor data showed that while sales dipped slightly in September on a month-to-month basis (down 0.66%), that’s primarily because spending was so strong throughout the summer. And spending in September actually increased on a year-over-year basis from the same month last year (up 5.42%).
“Amid continued economic uncertainty, consumers opted to preserve spending power [in September] in preparation for the important holiday season,” said NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay in a statement. “While month-over-month spending data has fluctuated as consumers have reacted to changing circumstances, year-over-year gains show robust growth and signal momentum as we head into the holidays.”
Buy Now or Buy Later? Consumers are Split.
Early shopping remains a popular choice among consumers, with 42% planning to begin browsing and buying before November, according to the NRF/Prosper survey. More than half (54%) of these consumers cite spreading out their budgets as a key reason for early shopping, along with avoiding the stress of last-minute purchases (41%).
However, nearly two-thirds (63%) of consumers plan to wait until Thanksgiving weekend, when many retailers offer steep BFCM promotions, to do the bulk of their holiday shopping, up from 59% in 2024.
Online continues to be the top holiday shopping destination: 55% of consumers plan to make digital purchases this season, followed by grocery stores (46%), department stores (44%) and discount stores (42%). Top gifts consumers would like to receive this year include gift cards (50%), clothing/accessories (46%), books and other media (27%), personal care/beauty items (23%) and electronics (22%).
