Holiday Forecasts Bright for Luxury Department Stores, Value Retailers and Warehouse Clubs

With the holiday shopping season in full swing, some might expect the November same-store retail sales to show an improvement over October. But according to ForecastIQ, the November forecast merely moved sideways from October.

Thirteen of the 27 retailers tracked are forecasted to have likely or almost certain growth, while two are predicted to remain flat and 12 are likely or almost certain to decline through the rest of the holiday shopping season.

Total Number for Retailers Tracked





Almost certain increase*



Likely increase






Likely decline



Almost certain decline



*An “almost certain increase” indicator for November means that in December and January,
retailers are almost certain to experience same store sales growth from the same period a
year ago. Forecasts can be viewed by each month.

Overall, the forecast tends to favor luxury or high-end department stores, value-driven retailers and warehouse clubs. The outlook for teen retailers is mixed and somewhat grim for other department stores.

Retailers like to see improvement in same-store sales:

  • Neiman Marcus;
  • Nordstrom;
  • Victoria’s Secret.


Ross Stores is considered almost certain to increase and Fred’s profits are likely to improve. Warehouse stores BJ’s and Costco are included in the roster of outlets almost certain to see an increase during the holiday shopping season.

Among teen retailers, Aeropostale and Buckle stand out — both likely to see an increase in sales. Abercrombie & Fitch and Old Navy are both expected to remain flat, while retailers including American Eagle and Wet Seal are likely to experience a decline. Hot Topic’s outlook remains bleak with stores having a higher probability of a decline throughout the season. Similarly, department stores such as Bon-Ton, Dillard’s and JC Penney are all likely to see decline through January.

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