In fashion, timing is everything. But climate change is turning the industry’s greatest strength – speed – into a liability.
The sector’s finely tuned supply chains, global sourcing strategies and just-in-time manufacturing models have delivered efficiency and profit for decades. Now, these same traits have become sources of acute vulnerability. From the cotton fields of Pakistan to the flood-prone industrial zones of Southeast Asia, the entire fashion system is being stress-tested by climate volatility.
This is no longer a conversation about sustainability. It’s a strategic reckoning.
When Flooding Occurs, the Machines Stall
The fashion industry’s reliance on climate-sensitive raw materials is well documented, but the immediacy and scale of physical risks are intensifying. In November 2023, torrential rains across Tuscany, Italy, caused the Bisenzio River to overflow and inundate the textile hub of Prato. Esteemed manufacturers such as Beste Group and Manteco suffered significant damage. These disruptions not only halted production but also exposed the vulnerability of luxury fashion’s supply chains to climate-induced events.
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These are not isolated incidents. They are the predictable outcomes of a warming planet acting on an industry optimized for cost, not resilience.
Scope 3: The Blind Spot on the Balance Sheet
While physical risks disrupt operations, transition risks are emerging as a quieter but no less material threat to profit margins and brand equity.
Scope 3 emissions – those generated across the entire value chain, from raw materials to final disposal – account for 90% to 95% of the fashion industry’s carbon footprint. Yet most brands either ignore or outsource responsibility for these emissions. According to the Sustainable Apparel Coalition, only 23% of companies disclose emissions from purchased goods and services.
Failure to address Scope 3 exposure is not just a reputational liability; it is a growing transition risk.
Regulatory Whiplash: From Reporting to Real-Time Disclosure
The regulatory environment is shifting from lagging indicators to live accountability. The Digital Product Passport (DPP), due to roll out under the EU’s Eco-design for Sustainable Products Regulation, will require every garment and shoe sold in Europe to include a machine-readable summary of its carbon footprint, material breakdown and recyclability.
This isn’t just a transparency tool – it’s a compliance mechanism. Under the EU’s Omnibus Directive, discrepancies between DPP disclosures and marketing claims could trigger fines or lawsuits. Footwear and textiles are priority sectors, meaning enforcement is imminent. The DPP will make carbon intensity and material traceability part of the product, not just the annual report.
The implications are far-reaching. Brands will need traceable, auditable data not only to avoid legal risk but to compete in regulated markets. The cost of inaccuracy, or even uncertainty, is rising.
From Resilience to Advantage: Rethinking Strategy
Forward-looking brands are beginning to embed climate data into strategic planning. Rather than reacting to risk, they are modelling it.
Using digital twins, design teams are simulating fiber swaps and supply chain shifts before a single garment is made. Sourcing and procurement teams are mapping exposure to heat, flood and drought risks at the factory level. Finance functions are modelling carbon pricing scenarios and building climate-adjusted cost forecasts.
This shift toward proactive, data-driven resilience is not about climate altruism – it is about commercial foresight.
Patagonia’s durability-first strategy, Nudie Jeans’ lifetime repair guarantee and Allbirds’ lifecycle transparency have moved from niche values to competitive advantages. They offer not just lower emissions but stronger customer loyalty, price premium justification and legal defensibility. Resilience is no longer a hedge – it’s a differentiator.
The Cost of Inaction is Already Being Paid
Every part of the fashion value chain now intersects with climate risk. Ports close due to wildfires. Heatwaves force power outages in dyeing mills. Material prices fluctuate unpredictably. Green claims are challenged in court. Consumer trust is harder to earn and easier to lose.
And yet, many boardrooms still treat climate exposure as an ESG footnote rather than a financial imperative.
According to modelling by Risilience, even under a Net Zero 2050 scenario, up to 27% of enterprise value in the fashion sector could be at risk from climate-related drivers: carbon pricing, consumer backlash, regulatory penalties and supply chain disruption. Under a business-as-usual pathway, emissions are projected to rise 50%, compounding risk across all fronts.
The Strategic Playbook: Five Moves for Resilient Growth
For those in the C-suite, the response must be clear-eyed, credible and commercially anchored. The following five strategies are emerging as best practices:
- Map climate exposure across sourcing regions: Use geospatial and meteorological data to assess flood, heat and drought risks. Adjust sourcing accordingly.
- Model emissions and carbon costs at the product level: Include Scope 3 in pricing, procurement and investment decisions.
- Prepare for regulation: Align with the Digital Product Passport and CBAM before enforcement hits. Treat compliance as a minimum standard.
- Invest in supplier adaptation: Support transitions to renewable energy, water efficiency and climate-safe infrastructure through co-investment or long-term contracts.
- Embed sustainability in the business: A business culture that prioritizes sustainability will drive more informed decisions, attract purpose-driven talent, unlock innovation and future-proof the organization against regulatory, reputational and resource-related risks.
Conclusion: Climate is Fashion’s New CFO
In a world of climate volatility, regulatory tightening and shifting consumer norms, the business model that brought fashion success in the past will not guarantee its future.
The next generation of market leaders will not be those that move the fastest, but those that invest in resilience – in fiber, in emissions, in data and in design. The brands that can quantify their exposure, adapt their operations and substantiate their claims won’t just weather the disruption, they’ll define the next era of fashion.
In fashion, as in finance, resilience is no longer optional – it’s the cost of staying in business.
Prior to becoming SVP of Modelling and Environmental Analytics at sustainability intelligence firm Risilience, Dr. Scott Kelly was the former Chief Economic Advisor to the New Zealand Parliament and recently testified to the U.S. Senate on how climate change threatens supply chains. Dr. Kelly is a Cambridge-trained economist who is committed to working with public and private sector stakeholders to create change toward a more sustainable future. He has spent the last 15 years working alongside organizations on the development of analytical tools, frameworks and scenarios to help understand impacts, mitigate risks and develop strategies to improve policy and business outcomes.
