Real talk — we all know what the next few months look like. You’re in the middle of your Q4 plans, juggling a million platform changes, watching your CPMs climb and trying to figure out how to make this holiday season different from last year’s chaos. Trust me, I’ve been there, living that same spreadsheet life, wondering if throwing more budget at broader audiences is really the answer.
Plot twist: it’s not.
The Strategy Shift that can Change Everything
After spending years running holiday campaigns, I’ve noticed something fascinating about the brands that consistently crush Q4. They’re not winning because they have massive budgets or access to some secret marketing illuminati. They’re winning because they’re thinking completely differently about how they target customers.
Let me share something that changed my entire approach to holiday marketing. Last year, I was working late (hello, instant ramen dinner), diving deep into campaign data when I noticed something interesting. The best-performing campaigns weren’t the ones targeting the biggest audiences — they were the ones using predictive data to get ahead of customer behavior. Total game-changer.
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Instead of looking backward at historical data (which is like trying to drive by looking in your rearview mirror), winning brands and agencies were looking for patterns that could predict future purchases. When do people actually start their holiday shopping? What signals show they’re ready to buy? Which behaviors indicate they are comparison shopping versus ready to pull the trigger?
The strategy shift was dramatic. Winning brands have stopped playing the “target everyone and pray” game and started focusing on reaching people at the exact moment they were most likely to convert. The result? ROAS quadrupled and dramatically lower CPAs (cost per acquisition).
Here’s how you can do the same thing (no all-nighters required).
Focusing on Future Behavior
First, flip the script on how you think about targeting. Instead of just looking at past purchases, start looking for behavior patterns that predict future ones. What do your best customers do in the weeks before they buy? Which email campaigns do they engage with? What content do they consume? This is where it gets interesting.
Once you start spotting these predictive signals, you can get ahead of the purchase curve. It’s like having a crystal ball for customer behavior (minus the creepy fortune teller vibes). Are customers who engaged with certain types of content 3X more likely to purchase within two weeks?
A brand I worked with took this approach last holiday season. Instead of blasting their entire list with the same Black Friday deals (please, we’re better than that), they created different journeys based on predicted purchase likelihood. High-intent customers got early access and exclusive offers. Mid-intent got social proof and reviews. Low-intent received educational content to nurture them along. Their conversion rates doubled.
Beyond the Crystal Ball: Predictive Tech that Works
The best part? The technology to do this exists right now. You don’t need a PhD in data science or a massive tech stack. Modern platforms leverage predictive analytics — you just need to know what to look for and how to use it.
Think about it this way: If your data shows someone is likely to buy in the next week, why wait until Black Friday to reach them? If they’re showing early signs of purchase intent, start nurturing them with content that addresses their specific concerns now.
I know what you’re thinking — this sounds complicated. And yes, it takes more thought than just pumping up your ad spend and hoping for the best. But in a world where ad costs are skyrocketing and every brand is fighting for attention, being smarter about how we target is our secret weapon.
The marketers who will own this holiday season aren’t the ones with the biggest budgets. They’re the ones who use their data to see around corners and get ahead of customer needs. They’re the ones who stop reacting to customer behavior and start anticipating it. That’s the difference between playing catch-up and leading the pack.
Want to really transform your holiday campaigns? Stop looking backward at what worked last year. Start using your data to predict what your customers need next. Get ahead of the curve. Everything else is just noise in an already noisy season.
Mike Ford is the Founder and CEO of Skydeo, which provides mobile audiences, insights and measurement to brands and agencies serving auto, retail, tech and mobile gaming clients. Prior to this, Ford was the Founder and CEO of TownConnect, a social media startup dedicated to organizing and uniting families, friends and organization in local communities. He also led sales and marketing for Did-it Search Marketing and business development for Quigo Technologies. His first startup, Computer.com, began in his garage in 1999 and was sold to what eventually became Office Depot’s tech center. Ford has been a guest speaker for Inc. Magazine’s CEO Conference, Webmaster World and Boston College and has been featured in the Wall Street Journal, USA Today, Boston Globe, NY Times, Ad Week, The Today Show and Good Morning America.
