While the economy is still a player in the game of holiday shopping this year, the overall outlook is positive for the retail industry. New research from Deloitte predicts that total holiday sales will climb to approximately $925 billion this year, representing a 3.5% to 4% increase for the two months between November 2012 and January 2013, compared to the same period of time last year (excluding motor vehicles and gasoline).
In addition, Deloitte forecasts a 15% to 17% increase in non-store sales, with nearly 75% coming from the online channel and additional sales from catalogs and interactive TV.
“Non-store sales continue to outpace overall growth, but increasingly influence consumers’ experience with the retail store, from trip planning, to in-store product research, and post-purchase reviews and sharing,” said Paul. “This holiday season, retailers’ most lucrative customers may be the ones they engage across physical and virtual storefronts.”
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Shoppers’ mobile phones will play a key role in the growth of non-store sales, as the number of consumers with smartphones continues to grow rapidly. The number of smartphones in the U.S. is expected to top 160 million by 2015, according to Coda Research Consultancy.
Based on the signs of improvement in consumer confidence, the National Retail Federation 2012 holiday forecast predicted that holiday sales will increase 4.1% to $586.1 billion. These predictions are higher than the 10-year average holiday sales increase of 3.5%. Actual holiday sales in 2011 grew 5.6%.
“This is the most optimistic forecast NRF has released since the recession,” said NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay. “In spite of the uncertainties that exist in our economy and among consumers, we believe we’ll see solid holiday sales growth this year. Variables including an upcoming presidential election, confusion surrounding the ‘fiscal cliff’ and concern relating to future economic growth could all combine to affect consumers’ spending plans, but overall we are optimistic that retailers promotions will hit the right chord with holiday shoppers.”
“While moderate compared to what we experienced the last two holiday seasons, the forecast is a very pragmatic look at what to expect this year given the current rate of economic growth,” added Jack Kleinhenz, Ph.D., Chief Economist at NRF. “There’s still some general anxiety amongst consumers when it comes to how the state of the economy is impacting their spending plans, but retailers can expect to see excitement around their promotions and plenty of bargain hunters both online and in stores in the coming months.”
The NRF holiday sales forecast is based on an economic model using several indicators including consumer confidence, consumer credit, disposable personal income, and previous monthly retail sales releases. This year’s forecast included the non-store category, such as direct-to-consumer, kiosks and online sales.
