By Andrew
Atkinson, GrandCanals
There’s
something about the start of the year that brings out the crystal-ball-gazer in
all of us, even though, as Nobel-prize winning physicist Niels Bohr once noted
(seconded by New York Yankees Hall of Famer Yogi Berra), “Prediction is very
difficult, especially about the future.”
Nonetheless,
we will do our best to identify what we at GrandCanals believe to be the
top five fulfillment trends of the coming year, to better help you get in front
of them.
I, For
One, Welcome Our Robot (Delivery) Overlords
UPS has
tested using its delivery trucks as platforms to launch delivery drones. DHL is
planning to test autonomous delivery trucks in 2018. We predict the
intersection of these stories: some time in 2018, at least one company will use
drones launched from an autonomous vehicle to deliver a package. Going forward,
we will see increased use of autonomous delivery vehicles for last mile
delivery, with drones or ambulatory robots taking deliveries from the
autonomous “mothership” truck the last few feet to the customers’ door. Expect
to also see robotic “horses” and
other critter-analogues as
part of the last-mile delivery mix. This may include robot “birds” – both incumbent
aircraft manufacturers and new entrants such as Nautilus see
an opportunity to dramatically cut air freight costs through automated
aviation. Expect significant progress and possibly even proof-of-concept tests
by the end of 2018.
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Options,
Options, Options
Amazon
is experimenting with deliveries to customers’ homes and cars, even when they
are not there. Expect to see a widespread rollout of multiple delivery options —
to home, to car, to office, to store, to locker, to curbside, from all of the
major e-Commerce players. Combined with superior tracking technology, in 2018,
customers in select markets will be given the opportunity to change delivery
instructions and locations (home, office, store, car, locker) on the fly,
almost up to the point of delivery itself. Offering a full range of
date-certain delivery options at different price-points will become e-Commerce
table stakes in 2018, with those companies failing to offer them to their
customers losing business to competitors that do.
Big
Brother Is Watching (Your Shipping)
The
Internet of Things, connected vehicles (delivery truck telemetry) — what this
means is that, in certain selected markets in 2018, some leading e-Commerce
companies will offer the ability to track some high-value shipments from the
warehouse to delivery — continually, not just at major handoff (scan) points.
It’ll be like Apple’s “Find Your Friends” — but for your new stuff. Amazon will
continue to refine its futuristic predictive shipping capabilities and will be
joined in 2018 by at least two other companies. Who will they be? Massive
retailers like Walmart or Target? Or highly-focused specialty retailers with a
deep knowledge of their customers, supported by advanced analytics?
The
Voracious Amazon
Amazon
will continue to grow rapidly — that’s an easy prediction to make. However,
Amazon will also add more ways of pleasing its customers and will expand into
new kinds of markets. Expect a big, strategic acquisition along the lines of
the Whole Foods deal earlier this year. Keep in mind that Amazon’s cash pile is
as big, or bigger, than the annual GDP of every country from Togo on down.
Heck, Amazon could buy a country. That would be a unique answer to the question
of where to put their second headquarters.
Weekends
Disappear — At Least For E-Commerce Delivery
Fulfillment
and shipping becomes a seven day/week operation. No more counting delivery in
“business days” — every day is a business day for e-Commerce. Also,
Fulfillment Centers will work extended hours, if not 24 hours a day, to keep
the “click-to-ship” time consistent and as quick as possible. Smaller
players will seek to outsource more fulfillment rather than try to staff up
themselves to meet this key objective.
How
much of this will happen? Only time will tell — and there are sure to be all
sorts of interesting developments none of us have foreseen. What do you think
will happen in the year ahead?
Andrew
Atkinson is the Director of Product Marketing at GrandCanals.
Previously, he was the Director of Product Marketing at Cloud Cruiser. Atkinson
has proven ability to achieve and act upon a deep understanding of customers,
markets and competitors. Formerly at E2open, Atkinson has more than two decades
of startup, international and IPO experience with various high technology
companies. He started his career in Boston, MA after he completed his
bachelor’s degree at Harvard University and then went on to complete his
Masters in Applied Economics and Finance at the University of California, Santa
Cruz
