Key Takeaways
- More than half of holiday shoppers say the economy will affect spending plans, prompting many to seek deals, compare prices online and use coupons.
- Consumers are balancing early shopping with continued reliance on Thanksgiving weekend promotions, while online remains the top planned shopping destination.
More than half of holiday shoppers say the state of the economy will affect their holiday spending plans this year, according to the National Retail Federation (NRF)’s annual consumer survey released Oct. 20.
Among the 56% of consumers citing economic concerns, 43% plan to shop for sales more often, 31% will comparison shop online more often and 29% will use coupons more often, among other strategies to make the season more affordable.
The survey comes after last the NRF forecast for holiday sales expected to grow 4.2% this year to $1.013 trillion, as shoppers keep spending despite persistent inflation and uneven confidence in the economy. The forecast marks an acceleration from 2025, when holiday sales rose 3.1% to $972 billion.
Affordability Drives How Shoppers Plan Holiday Spending
NRF Vice President of Industry and Consumer Insights Allison Zeller said holiday shoppers are taking a thoughtful approach to spending, balancing value with preserving holiday traditions with affordability top of mind.
“Retailers understand consumer budget priorities and are responding with compelling products, promotions and shopping experiences that make it easier to find value while still capturing the holiday excitement,” said Zeller in a statement.
Early Holiday Shopping Reflects Budget Management and Deal-Seeking
The survey found that 43%of holiday shoppers plan to begin browsing and buying for the holiday season before November, in line with 42% last year. Among those starting early, 50% do so to spread out their holiday shopping budgets, while 37% say the prices and promotions are too good to pass up. Affordability is at top of mind for those waiting until November to start their shopping— 46% of these shoppers saying they plan to wait until November and December because it is when they find the best prices and promotions.
While many consumers begin their holiday shopping early, many hold off on making the bulk of their purchases until later in the season, with sales and promotions continuing to play an important role throughout the holiday season. Nearly two-thirds (64%) of consumers say they are likely to wait until Thanksgiving weekend to do most of their shopping, in line with 63% last year.
“From getting an early start to waiting for major deals and promotions, consumers are choosing when to shop based on what works best for them,” said Phil Rist, Prosper Executive Vice President of Strategy, the organization who conducted the survey. “Even with a significant portion of shoppers beginning before November, many still plan to take advantage of deals and promotions during Thanksgiving weekend to make progress on their holiday shopping.”
Online and Value-Focused Channels Remain Central to Holiday Purchases
Consistent with recent years, nearly all U.S. adults (91%) plan to celebrate winter holidays including Christmas, Hanukkah or Kwanzaa.
Consumers continue to shop across a variety of destinations during the holidays. Online remains the leading shopping destination, with 53% planning to shop online. Other popular destinations include grocery stores (43%), discount stores (43%) and department stores (42%).
Gift cards remain at the top of consumers’ wish lists, with 47% saying they would like to receive them this holiday season, followed by clothing (44%), books and other media (25%) and personal care or beauty items (24%).
