Although retailers have steadily expanded the holiday calendar, marketing investment and performance expectations still tend to concentrate around Black Friday. That concentration increasingly conflicts with how consumers discover, research and evaluate holiday purchases. Brands that continue to plan around the Black Friday window risk missing the earlier, more consequential moments in the buying journey.
Today’s shoppers begin researching holiday purchases weeks before November. They browse social platforms, compare products across marketplaces, read reviews, watch creator content and increasingly rely on AI-powered search and recommendation tools to narrow their options.
By the time consumers reach Black Friday, they have narrowed their consideration sets. The remaining decision may come down to price, availability, fulfillment, loyalty benefits and trust.
The dominant conversation around artificial intelligence in marketing has focused on internal applications: generating content faster, automating workflows and scaling creative production. Those applications are valuable, but equally important, and arguably more consequential for Holiday planning, is what AI is doing on the consumer side. AI-powered discovery is reshaping how shoppers find products and evaluate brands long before they reach a retailer’s website. Retailers that wait until November to begin influencing those decisions may find that many shoppers have already narrowed their options.
Winning the holiday season now requires showing up early with relevant, personalized experiences that help consumers make confident decisions. Shoppers remain budget conscious. Value still matters, but value extends beyond price. Personalized recommendations, loyalty benefits, exclusive offers and consistent experiences across channels all play a role in building confidence before a purchase is ever made.
Delivering that experience depends on connected consumer intelligence: a complete, unified foundation that allows brands to recognize shopping intent earlier, personalize across touchpoints and deliver consistency whether a shopper is researching via AI, browsing social media, opening an email or walking into a physical store.
Artificial intelligence is only as effective as the data behind it. If retailers rely on incomplete customer records, outdated identifiers or disconnected signals across channels, AI will simply amplify those inaccuracies. The foundation that makes AI-era marketing work is trusted identity and connected consumer intelligence: accurate, enriched data that moves freely across the platforms and partners a retailer works with. As the ecosystem evolves, that portability becomes as valuable as the data itself.
Measurement should evolve alongside these changes. Looking only at clicks, impressions or even online conversions provides an incomplete picture of Holiday performance. Retailers need to understand which audiences actually drove sales, how different channels influenced purchasing decisions and whether holiday campaigns created lasting customer relationships that extend well beyond the season itself. Consumer intelligence that connects identity, campaign exposure, behavioral signals and real-world outcomes answers those questions and creates a stronger foundation for planning the year.
The holiday shopping season has not become shorter or simpler. It has become longer, more fragmented and increasingly influenced by AI-powered discovery. Retailers that recognize this shift and invest in building the right foundation will engage shoppers long before purchase intent peaks. That means trusted identity, connected consumer intelligence and the flexibility to seamlessly activate across every partner and platform. The conversation that earns the Holiday sale starts well before Black Friday.
Colleen Dawe is VP of Advertiser Partnerships at Experian, where she leads relationships with agencies and brand marketers, helping advertisers use data, identity and measurement to drive more effective marketing outcomes. With extensive experience across digital advertising and data-driven marketing, Colleen brings deep expertise in audience strategy, identity, activation and measurement across channels.
