Key takeaways
- Simon-Kucher’s survey suggests U.S. households plan to spend less this holiday season, with consumers shopping earlier and leaning harder on deals.
- Retailers may need to compete on value, service and trust as AI tools and social commerce increasingly shape holiday purchase decisions.
While most holiday retail sales forecasts have projected an increase by holiday shoppers this year, Simon-Kucher’s 8th Annual Holiday Shopping Study sees Americans plan to decrease theirs spending by 5.5% less this season to an average of $1,018, to returning back to 2024 levels.
As household budgets shrink, any retail revenue growth will likely come from higher prices, rather than more purchases, causing retailers to fight for every hard-earned dollar, according to global management consulting company that specializes in pricing strategy, monetization, and commercial growth. While higher-income households are the spending anchors, many consumers are pulling back, drawing on savings and buying with holiday gifts with greater intention.
Respondents said they are shopping earlier, scaling back discretionary purchases and using holiday promotions to stock up on basic needs— 77% of say inflation has changed their shopping behavior with 37% are relying on promotions for non-essential purchases. Additionally, 62% said they were shopping earlier to spread out costs.
Inflation and Higher Fuel Costs Push Shoppers Toward Value and Promotions
The survey results lead Shikha Jain, Partner and Head of Consumer North America at Simon-Kucher, to state that holiday budgets are being reset, not abandoned.
“High fuel costs and inflation have made consumers far more focused on value and deals,” said Jain in a statement. “For lower and middle-income households, financial fragility is growing. They’re choosing between record debt and everyday essentials, and holiday gifts add more to the financial pressure.”
Tradition Still Matters Even as Consumers Trim Spending Plans
The 8th edition of Simon-Kucher’s holiday shopping survey analyzed holiday retail market patterns through a nationally representative survey of 1,500 U.S. adult consumers. The study examined budgeting, gift category preferences, purchase timing, and the influence of digital platforms. It compares consumer expectations with industry projections to provide actionable insights for retailers and business leaders.
Their report goes against a number of others that have forecast increased spending— among them the National Retail Federation (NRF) expecting holiday sales to grow 4.2% this year to $1.013 trillion and Deloitte prediction shoppers will spend an average of $1,654 this holiday season, up 4%.
Simon-Kucher found deal-seeking remains central to holiday shopping, though trust in advertised savings has dropped. More than half of consumers, 52%, believe Black Friday offers the best deals of the season, and 61% of millennials say they enjoy flash sales. Coupon use varies by generation: 48% of millennials and 30% of Gen X shoppers describe themselves as active coupon hunters. Skepticism, however, is growing. Only 22% of consumers believe advertised discounts reflect true savings, down sharply from 46% in 2025. Another 29% say discounts represent only partial savings or rarely reflect actual savings.
Despite higher costs, U.S. consumers are prioritizing tradition this holiday season. According to survey data, 56% of shoppers plan to spend extra to maintain their holiday traditions, which suggests seasonal rituals still drive purchasing decisions despite ongoing price pressure. Big-ticket purchases lead holiday budgets— trips and appliances account for 72% of the largest holiday spending categories, so a large share of seasonal dollars are going toward travel and durable household goods rather than smaller gift items.
AI and TikTok Shop Influence How Holiday Shoppers Find Deals
Besides budget constraints, technology is changing this year’s gift-buying journey. AI is the new shopping assistant (76% view AI as somewhat trustworthy), helping consumers find value-oriented deals, compare products, and make more confident decisions—55% use AI to find the best deals and 51% will use it for comparisons.
TikTok Shop LIVE gives brands a new storefront with real-time product demos and urgent, limited-time offers. Nearly 60% of TikTok Shop users say they are likely to shop on the social media platform during the holidays, making it a critical driver of seasonal inspiration and direct-to-consumer conversion. Compared to other social platforms, 76% of TikTok shoppers see better offers, limited-time drops, and special promotions as 70% have discovered new products.
“The retailers that win won’t necessarily be the loudest discounters,” said Jain. “They will be the ones that look beyond what consumers plan to spend and understand how and where they make purchase decisions. They will move past product assortment, price, and promotion, and seek other ways to provide value such as service and loyalty to drive traffic this holiday season.”
