Grocery retailers are facing two realities that define the current operating environment. Labor costs, while no longer accelerating, remain elevated compared to pre-pandemic levels, reflecting ongoing wage pressure and staffing challenges, according to the Deloitte Global Retail Outlook. At the same time, consumer tolerance for stockouts has declined further. Shoppers may be value-conscious, but their expectations around fresh availability and presentation remain uncompromising.
The industry has largely moved beyond the acute supply chain volatility of the early 2020s. What has replaced it is a more nuanced challenge: tighter margins, less operational slack and a consumer who expects freshness and abundance at all times.
These trends are most visible in fresh departments. Fresh foods now account for roughly 42% of total grocery sales, which makes them among the most critical drivers of both revenue and margin, according to FMI. Yet these same departments are also the most operationally complex.
In the weeks leading up to spring holidays such as Easter and Passover, field teams and associates in the produce and meat departments work exceptionally hard to properly display full cases, vibrant color and seasonal adjacencies. But sustaining that execution across a 500-store footprint is far more complex than it appears. Behind the scenes, the “Fresh Execution Gap” — the distance between a corporate merchandising plan and its physical execution on the floor — continues to be a persistent source of margin leakage.
The challenge is no longer knowing what should be done. It’s executing consistently, in real time, in an environment where labor is constrained and experience levels vary widely.
The 2026 Operational Reality
While fresh categories account for a significant portion of total grocery sales, they remain the least compatible with traditional retail controls. Unlike the center store, where rigid shelving, barcodes and long resets allow for high levels of automation, the perimeter is fluid by design.
Seasonal transitions — from winter staples to spring lamb, fresh herbs, asparagus and early-season berries — require precision in placement, assortment and timing. Manual audits and retrospective reporting struggle to keep pace. For a mid-sized chain, improperly executing even a portion of these transitions during a narrow seasonal window can produce measurable margin erosion.
Compounding the issue is the fact that the responsibility for execution increasingly falls to less-experienced associates. High turnover and labor scarcity mean fewer tenured department experts on the floor. The result is a consistency problem: The plan is sound, but execution varies store to store, shift to shift. That variability shows up directly in shrink, availability and basket size.
From Visibility Lag to Real-Time Action
The Fresh Execution Gap persists not because plans are flawed, but because feedback arrives too late. Research from the Grocery Manufacturers Association shows that approximately 4% of out-of-stocks are “shelf out-of-stocks” — products that are in the building but not on the shelf — making them an execution failure rather than a supply failure.
By the time an issue is identified during a store walk or in a report, the selling opportunity has often passed. In response, leading grocers are shifting from retrospective analysis to real-time, AI-powered augmented reality (AR) at the point of execution.
This shift effectively turns the standard mobile device into a digital copilot for store associates. Rather than asking teams to remember complex seasonal schematics or interpret static checklists, AR provides immediate visual guidance as work is being done.
Using real-time image recognition, an associate can scan a produce or meat case and receive instant visual feedback. If a seasonal plan calls for fresh mint to be cross-merchandised near lamb, the AR interface can overlay a visual guide showing intended placement. If facings are missing, misplaced or over-represented — driving potential shrink — the system flags the issue immediately.
This goes beyond identifying out-of-stocks. It enforces merchandising intent. It ensures high-margin items are positioned correctly, adjacencies are executed as planned and presentation standards are maintained. The practical effect is significant: A new hire can execute a complex seasonal set with the precision of a 10-year veteran, dramatically reducing onboarding lag and execution variance.
Protecting Loyalty Through Availability
The cost of missed execution has increased alongside shopper expectations. When consumers encounter out-of-stocks, the response is swift. Studies show that nearly 90% of shoppers will not wait for an item to be restocked, according to NielsenIQ, choosing instead to substitute, abandon the purchase or shop elsewhere.
Spring holidays amplify this risk. Shoppers are assembling specific meals, not browsing. A missing herb, a particular cut of meat or a key seasonal item can trigger full basket abandonment. The customer does not simply substitute; they relocate the entire trip.
Real-time AR visibility allows store teams to intervene before these moments occur. By identifying shelf gaps, misplacements and availability risks as they happen, retailers can stabilize assortment execution and protect the full basket — not just individual item sales.
From Intuition to Intelligence
Retailers that continue to rely on manual checklists and delayed audits struggle to operate at the speed of today’s consumer demands. In an environment defined by narrow margins and elevated expectations, SKU-level execution intelligence at the shelf is becoming table stakes. When execution improves, availability stabilizes. When availability stabilizes, baskets hold. And when baskets hold, margin follows.
In fresh, the margin is already earned — or lost — before the customer reaches the case. In 2026, competitive advantage is no longer defined by better plans, but by the ability to execute them consistently, at scale and in real time.
Kevin Corcoran is Chief Customer Officer at FORM, where he helps CPG and retail leaders harness mobile technology to drive consistent execution and elevate frontline performance.
