Two Surveys, One Back-to-School Shopper: Price Sensitive, AI Curious, Kid Led

Key Takeaways 

• Deloitte projects $557 per K-12 student, nearly flat nominally but down 6% after inflation, amid the gloomiest economic outlook since 2020.

• PwC measures a broader household population and finds parents expect to spend $922 this year, with 47% saying they’ll spend more than last year, up from 35% last year. 

• Both surveys agree: AI is now part of the shopping journey, and kids play a major role in what lands in the cart.

Back to school forecasts are landing with a split screen this year. Deloitte’s newly released 2026 survey points to a cautious, value hunting parent tightening the belt against economic headwinds, while PwC’s late June poll describes a family feeling more optimistic about spending, with kids increasingly steering the purchase.

Some of that gap comes down to what each firm actually measured. Deloitte surveyed parents of K-12 children specifically and reports a per student figure, while PwC surveyed a broader pool of adults 18 and older and reports a per household figure, which naturally runs higher. 

Deloitte Sees Flat Dollars, Real Declines and Rising Anxiety

Deloitte projects back to school spending for K-12 students will hold essentially flat in nominal terms, reaching a collective $30.4 billion, or about $557 per student. Adjusted for inflation, that works out to a 6% real decline year over year. The caution tracks with a gloomier economic outlook overall: 57% of parents surveyed expect the economy to worsen over the next six months, the highest share Deloitte has recorded since 2020. 

Income Determines the Direction

The pullback is not evenly distributed by income. Lower income families earning $50,000 or less plan to spend 10% more than last year, and middle income households plan to spend 12% more, both groups pointing to higher prices as the driver. 

Upper middle income parents earning $100,000 to $199,000 plan to cut spending 9%, largely out of worry about where the economy is headed, while households earning $200,000 or more plan the steepest pullback at 20%, with 63% saying they simply have less money on hand. 

Clothing Rises as Tech Spending Falls

Category shifts stand out too. Clothing and accessories, typically the biggest line item in most budgets, is expected to climb 22% to an average of $323 per child, even though parents name it the first category they would cut if money got tight.  

Technology spending is moving the other way, down 16% to $417 per child, as families put off buying new laptops, tablets and phones for another year. 

Value Seekers Are Spending More, Not Less

Value seeking does not necessarily mean spending less, according to Deloitte. About 31% of parents qualify as hyper value seekers, meaning they adopt four or more cost saving tactics such as switching brands, shopping discount retailers or using cashback sites. That group actually plans to spend 14% more than other shoppers, a sign that budget conscious parents are being selective rather than simply cutting back. 

Deloitte’s Brian McCarthy, principal and Retail Strategy leader at Deloitte Consulting LLP, said in a statement that shoppers who actively use multiple digital tools tend to be more engaged and spend more. Parents who use no digital research tools plan to spend $381 on average, while those who combine search, social media and GenAI plan to spend $737, nearly double. 

Timing is shifting later in the season as well. Only 48% of planned spending is expected to happen by the end of July, down sharply from 61% in 2025, with another 31% pushed into early August. The findings come from an online survey Deloitte conducted between May 22 and May 29, 2026, among 1,207 parents with at least one child in grades K-12 this fall. 

PwC Paints a Pricier, Kid Driven Season

PwC’s survey, published June 24, describes a family handing more control over to their kids and feeling more optimistic about spending this year. Parents expect to spend an average of $922 on back-to-school shopping, and nearly half (47%) expect to spend more than they did a year ago, up from 35% who said the same in last year’s survey. 

Kids are no longer just influencing the shopping list; they are filling the cart directly. Sixty one percent of parents plan to let their kids, from pre-K through high school, add items straight to online carts, whether through their own login or a shared family account. AI has entered the picture too: 73% of families say they will use AI somewhere in the shopping journey, whether to research products, compare prices, budget or hunt for deals. 

The Channel Mix Is Shifting

The path to purchase has also fragmented. In-store shopping is expected to fall to 70% of parents this year, down from 79% last year, a nine-point drop in a single season. Online marketplaces will see activity from 67% of parents, while 49% will shop directly on brand or retailer websites. 

Emerging channels are carving out space too: 23% of parents plan to shop through social media or influencer recommendations, and the same 23% will use AI specifically to find deals, a channel that did not meaningfully exist in last year’s survey. PwC surveyed 2,080 adults ages 18 and older in the US between May 20 and 22, 2026. 

Where the $922 Actually Goes

PwC also broke out the budget by category, and clothing still dominates. Three out of four families are spending at least $100 on apparel and shoes, averaging $278 per household, more than double what they expect to spend on core school supplies like backpacks, notebooks, binders, pens and pencils, which averages $122. Technology, covering laptops, tablets and headphones, averages $222 per household, a category Deloitte’s K-12 parents said they were pulling back on even as PwC’s broader household number holds up. 

Kids’ influence shows up unevenly by grade level too. Half of high school parents say their child influences tech purchases specifically, compared with less than a quarter of middle school parents, suggesting the handoff of purchasing control happens gradually rather than all at once. 

What Actually Tips the Purchase

Kids’ preferences carry the most weight in the end, cited by 58% of parents as the single biggest influence on what gets bought. But PwC found that influence rarely stands alone. School-provided supply lists still shape 55% of purchases, and sales, promotions and discounts factor into 54%, a reminder that even a kid-driven cart still passes through a parent managing the budget. 

The Spending Does Not Stop at the First School Bell

PwC’s survey also looked past the shopping cart to what happens once school is actually in session. Parents expect to spend an additional $635 per month per household on recurring costs tied to school, including $260 on fees such as field trips, tutoring or tuition, and $235 on meals and snacks.  

More than half of respondents, 54%, expect to spend at least $100 a month on meals and snacks alone, a cost that rarely shows up in back-to-school headlines built around a single seasonal number.