In 2025, 31% of Amazon’s annual online product revenue was generated during the fourth quarter. Gift and holiday item sales increase even more during the quarter. At Albert Scott, we have seen brands sell anywhere from 30,000 to 250,000 units of a relatively new product during Q4.
For certain, every Amazon brand wants a breakout fourth quarter.
An Amazon Q4 bestseller should be built several months earlier. Planning in the unpredictable world of Amazon is challenging — consumer demand, advertising costs and inventory availability can change quickly. Still, your planning, even if imperfect, matters! As former President Eisenhower famously said in a 1957 speech, “Plans are worthless, but planning is everything.”Â
Identifying Q4 Home-Run Candidate Products
To start, you first need to decide if your product is really a Q4 product that has opportunity for growth. Do not assume that because a product could be a gift, customers will perceive it that way. Review which products in your catalog have measurable sales growth in the prior fourth quarter. Amazon’s Search Query Performance dashboard can help identify the search terms that are bringing shoppers to your brand and will show how individual ASINs perform. Look at the clusters of gift-related searches that are popular during the season, such as “gifts for men,” “stocking stuffers” or “gifts for coworkers” and see how your product performed on these types of searches. You need to determine: does your product appear for the searches? Does it attract clicks? Does it convert?
Look at the product’s results within its category. Did your product capture its fair share of the Q4 growth in its category? A category may increase by 50%, for example, while your product grows only 10%; shoppers are buying — but choosing competing products.
Test the Product Before Buying a Major Commitment
Assume we have identified a good candidate for our Q4 home run. We need to know if we can make it a star. Paid advertising provides one of the fastest ways to test a product’s growth opportunity. On a prior holiday, such as Easter, Father’s Day or Mother’s Day, identify promising holiday search terms and purchase sponsored advertising against them. If you can, even do the test in two seasons; testing across two seasons helps distinguish a durable gifting opportunity from a one-time promotion. You are trying to learn.
Your product should be appropriately priced and appear as a thoughtful and convenient product. Nielsen places the general range of Q4 gifts as high as $247 depending upon category; in our agency’s experience, successful Amazon consumer gifts fall within a price range of $10 to $49. Packaging is important. What is a perfectly adequate package for replenishment may look disappointing under a Christmas tree. We have had much success with “holiday packaging” as well as with multi-packs. The multi-pack kits make the gift look more robust and presents the notion that, “This is a gift with a few things you can try!”. A “Holiday Bundle” label, improved packaging or stating, “Limited Edition” may also help sales.
You are now paying to get your product in front of buyers. When shoppers see the product, do they click? A click-through rate above approximately 2% indicates meaningful shopper interest. If they are clicking, do they buy? Even a modest initial conversion rate can demonstrate an opportunity. Compare the results with your normal product performance.
If, unfortunately, shoppers are not clicking, reconsider the main image, price or gifting proposition. If they click but do not purchase, review its detail page, reviews and its value proposition.
Ready, Set Fire!
We have honed the product, its packaging, its catalog listing — Q4 will be coming. We now need:
Sufficient Inventory: A brand cannot become a Q4 bestseller if it runs out of inventory just as its ranking begins to improve. Examine prior sales velocity, keyword ranking, conversion rates, advertising performance and current placement on the search results page. Don’t order just based on enthusiasm alone.
Ship to Amazon Early: Ship FBA inventory early to Amazon. Amazon’s fulfillment network is powerful, but receiving inventory and distributing it among fulfillment centers takes time. Peak-season fulfillment fees and higher seasonal storage costs make early inventory expensive, but arriving late can cost far more in lost sales. Jeff Bezos wrote that Amazon’s success was to “continue to focus relentlessly on our customers.” For sellers, that means ensuring the product is available with the on-time delivery promise that holiday shoppers expect.
Promote Early: Promotions early in the season are valuable, and search rankings may be easier and less expensive to establish before every competitor increases spending. Early momentum can position the product for the most important shopping period.
Advertise To Sell-through: The advertising team must know how many units need to be sold and by what date. Give your ad managers an acceptable margin range — perhaps 10% to 20%, depending on the product — and room to sell-through the inventory. Campaigns should be adjusted daily by the ad team based on units remaining, advertising costs, organic ranking and the number of viable selling days left. The goal is to try to sell out the majority of the inventory before the last day of the year that you can ship to Amazon. Let the ad team increase promotional support and advertising while shoppers are still buying gifts. Do not protect a few points of margin only to spend the next six months paying storage fees and discounting unwanted seasonal inventory. Our agency supports our ad team with an in-house-built holiday tracker that compares daily sales, advertising and inventory with the equivalent period from the previous year.
Q4 success is not simply generating the greatest possible revenue. It is selling the right product, at the right price, with sufficient inventory — and finishing the season with as little unwanted stock as possible.
The brands that win Q4 are the ones that test early, measure honestly and adjust every day.
David Greenblatt is CEO of Albert Scott, an Amazon full-service agency that helps established brands build profitable, scalable Amazon revenue while navigating the complexities of the Amazon marketplace. Over the last few years, the agency has helped more than one hundred brands generate over $200 million in revenue. They have helped many brands uncover hidden growth opportunities and position the right products with solid strategies for a strong fourth-quarter performance.Â
