Key takeways:
- Visa’s 2026 midyear outlook projects global economic growth of 2.4% driven by record AI and infrastructure investment.
- Visa economists say AI’s productivity benefits have not yet shown up in output data because companies are still in the costly early stage of adoption.
- Visa data shows rising digital commerce penetration in smaller cities is weakening customer loyalty and limiting retailers’ ability to raise prices.
Global economic growth will reach 2.4% in 2026, according to Visa Business and Economic Insights’ Midyear Global Economic Outlook released Tuesday, as a surge in business investment tied to artificial intelligence helps counterbalance pressure on consumer budgets from rising energy costs.
The report describes the current environment as the strongest industrial investment cycle since 2010, driven by companies racing to build out AI infrastructure, transition to cleaner energy and rebuild strategic supply chains. Capital goods imports across the United States, European Union and China, which together account for three-quarters of global demand, have risen sharply in tandem, a sign businesses are deploying capital despite a more fragile geopolitical backdrop.
“As digital commerce continues to reshape how people shop and pay, consumers are finding more ways to compare prices and stretch their budgets, helping to keep inflation in check,” said Wayne Best, Chief Economist at Visa, in a statement. “We’re also seeing business investment rising sharply, with companies building out AI, clean energy and stronger supply chains at levels we haven’t seen since 2010, a trend that is helping support global growth.”
AI Productivity Gains Still Ahead, Not Yet in the Data
Visa’s economists caution that the productivity benefits of AI adoption have not yet materialized in conventional output measures. Companies are still in an earlier, costlier phase of adoption that includes redesigning business processes, integrating new tools into existing workflows and upskilling employees.
Those efforts build valuable intangible assets, the report notes, but their costs and benefits are not well captured by standard productivity metrics, meaning measured output can look flat or even weaker during early adoption even as investment accelerates.
Visa’s economists expect a wave of complementary spending on software and other intangible assets to follow the current surge in AI hardware investment, with the productivity payoff arriving later.
Digital Commerce Spreads to Smaller Markets, Constraining Prices
The report also points to the continued spread of digital commerce beyond major urban centers as a structural check on inflation. Visa’s analysis of nearly 600 cities found that card-not-present transaction penetration in smaller “peripheral” markets rose from roughly 31% before the pandemic to about 56% by the first quarter of 2026, while core cities held in the mid-to-high 80% range. Cities including Fujairah, Annecy and San Juan saw some of the sharpest increases in online shopping share over the period.
Visa’s data shows that markets with higher digital penetration also see greater customer churn, with loyalty falling as the online share of spending rises, making it more difficult for retailers to sustain price increases. As comparison shopping becomes easier in a widening set of markets, the report says, retailers face mounting pressure on pricing power, a dynamic likely to intensify reliance on retail media, loyalty programs and personalization as competitive levers.
Consumer Spending Adjusting, Not Retreating
Despite the inflationary pressure from energy prices, Visa’s Spending Momentum Index data shows discretionary consumer spending has held relatively steady, with tentative signs of firming in May.
Visa economists characterized the pattern as “more like adjustment than collapse” compared with the sharper consumer pullback seen during the 2022 inflation shock, noting that the current cycle has not come with the same direct disruption to the global food supply seen in 2022, when exports from major cereal producers Ukraine and Russia were affected.
Food prices, however, are expected to continue rising into the back half of the year, with Visa’s forecast pointing to a peak in the fourth quarter of 2026 as fertilizer-linked cost pressures work through agricultural cycles with a lag relative to oil price moves.
